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Nyjer for Milledge - MLBTrade Rumors

#21 User is online   GoBucs21 

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 09:00 AM

QUOTE (jeffr92 @ Jun 27 2009, 09:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Lastings Milledge is a career -25.2 runs defensively, and has a career wOBA of .318. He may still be marginally young, but he certainly hasn't shown himself to be any good at baseball. Lastings Milledge is a poor man's Delmon Young.

The only thing that makes Milledge attractive is his potential or former potential. He's done little performance wise. This rumored trade speaks more to how much value Milledge lost, than to an increase in value. The Nationals would deal Milledge for almost anything.

If the rumors are true, it was the addition of Craig Stammen that killed this deal, not Milledge. Right now, the Nationals feel that Morgan is worth a failed prospect, that doesn't speak to Morgan's value.
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#22 User is offline   jeffr92 

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 09:05 AM

QUOTE (GoBucs21 @ Jun 27 2009, 10:00 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The only thing that makes Milledge attractive is his potential or former potential. He's done little performance wise. This rumored trade speaks more to how much value Milledge lost, than to an increase in value. The Nationals would deal Milledge for almost anything.

If the rumors are true, it was the addition of Craig Stammen that killed this deal, not Milledge. Right now, the Nationals feel that Morgan is worth a failed prospect, that doesn't speak to Morgan's value.

I'm not trying to argue that Morgan has a lot of trade value. I've compared Nyjer to Endy Chavez a few times, and I'd rather have Endy Chavez on my team than Lastings Milledge. I'll do a simple WAR comparison for Pjoma:

Career:
Milledge: -0.3 WAR
Nyjer: 3.9 WAR
Endy Chavez: 6.7 WAR
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#23 Guest_sloshyj_*

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 09:19 AM

QUOTE (Winters in Holland @ Jun 27 2009, 09:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Wait- weren't you the one just telling us to "lower our trade expectations?"

Hey pot, meet Cap'n Contradiction,


.WiH.

Well... yeah.

As in, Nyjer Morgan could get us Lastings Milledge, and though i don't think Lastings Milledge is so great, he's a warm body with some amount of upside.

Besides, I was speaking about Wilson, Sanchez and AdLaRoche specifically... but you know that...

I was told, in no uncertain terms, that Nyjer Morgan had ZERO trade value, and that continuing to run him out to LF was foolish.

Well, those people can suck an egg.
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#24 Guest_sloshyj_*

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 09:22 AM

QUOTE (GoBucs21 @ Jun 27 2009, 09:26 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'm not going to say that Morgan has worked himself up to trade value. The Nationals have worn thin on Milledge. So getting him for Morgan doesn't mean Morgan has value. It means Milledge has little.

I think it means both, douchebag.
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#25 User is offline   Pjoma 

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 09:27 AM

Why is it that anyone would regard Milledge as the cornersone of this deal? That's why NH want pitching. Milledge is secondary in his asking price.
"Huntington is doing exactly what he was hired to do, and that the fans and media in Pittsburgh cant quite grasp this, that they still hold the 2008-09 trades against him, is an indictment of their sensibilities." Joe Sheehan 6/6/10
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#26 Guest_sloshyj_*

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 09:50 AM

QUOTE (Pjoma @ Jun 27 2009, 10:27 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Why is it that anyone would regard Milledge as the cornersone of this deal? That's why NH want pitching. Milledge is secondary in his asking price.

Well, it was presented that the Nationals offered Milledge and balked when NH asked for Craig Stammen... that may be a reimagining of what is really going on. Who knows.

Milledge does profile as the type of player NH perhaps overvalues. Speedy outfielder. He's a headcase, though.

We shall see. It's good to see these sorts of rumors though... shows NH is out there wheelin' and dealin', and with a player few thought would be the centerpiece of such a trade.
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#27 User is offline   Penguin 

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 10:40 AM

I've openly admitted I was wrong about Nyjer Morgan. I was one of many who claimed he had absolutely no business being the opening day LF for the Pirates. I think he's done an okay job so far this season and will admit I enjoy watching him more than thought.

But I think the gap between what I thought he could do and what he's actually doing is being greatly exaggerated. I honestly thought he'd be about a .250 hitter with a .310 OBP, and play average defense at best. Instead he's hitting .265 with a .345 OBP and playing good defense. So really, my opinion and expectations from him weren't that far off. But when you consider his poor baserunning (stealing percentage under 70%) and how horribly miscast he is in LF, there's no denying he's nothing more than a short term solution and should not be considered part of any long term plan.

So yes, he's getting on base about 3.5% more and playing better defense than I predicted. If people want to throw that in my face, feel free. If he's able to be traded for something of value, we can add that to the list as well. But at the end of the day, I honestly don't think I missed that poorly on my original judgement.
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#28 Guest_sloshyj_*

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 10:57 AM

QUOTE (Penguin @ Jun 27 2009, 11:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I honestly thought he'd be about a .250 hitter with a .310 OBP, and play average defense at best. Instead he's hitting .265 with a .345 OBP and playing very, very good defense - the best defensive LF in baseball thus far by UZR, and its not even close. So really, my opinion and expectations from him were pretty far off, considering the entire package.

Fixed.
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#29 User is offline   Pjoma 

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 11:18 AM

I don't think anyone cares how much the predictions about Morgan were, rather than how badly folks interpret NH and crew's evaluation of players. Anything positive that Morgan brought to this 2009 team, or it's future value in trade is a huge plus. This guy was considered by some as a HUGE waste of roster space. Now we're talking about a player or two in trade for him upgrading this organization. In the meantime, we have a player with the second highest WAR on this entire team.

Fuck singling out OPS, fuck isolating % of stolen bases and screw looking at just his defense. WAR is the only thing that matters; a TOTAL evaluation of what a player adds to a team or value in trade.
"Huntington is doing exactly what he was hired to do, and that the fans and media in Pittsburgh cant quite grasp this, that they still hold the 2008-09 trades against him, is an indictment of their sensibilities." Joe Sheehan 6/6/10
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#30 User is offline   Pjoma 

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 11:19 AM

QUOTE (LonghornBuc @ Jun 27 2009, 12:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Nyler Morgans LF defense has to be the worst argument ever for why he is anything of value. For a guy who runs circles and half moons when a straight line would work better, I just dont buy he is worth any measurable amount of runs over his predecessor.


That's why this board can't take your evaluations of players seriously.



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#31 User is offline   coolpapacole 

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 11:22 AM

I don't think Nyjer is particularly good, but I don't see the big upside in Milledge. He has done nothing to this point in his career to think he will be better than Nyjer. Clearly Nyjer is a better defensive player (not that that is a primary concern for me) and he has at least been the offensive equal of Milledge to this point. The only thing Milledge has over Morgan is age, and I just don't see that that is enough to bother making this trade, although I would definitely be shopping Nyjer around. Maybe someone can explain to me why we should think Milledge will ever turn into more than he is now or why he is currently even as good as Nyjer, but at this point I don't see it.
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#32 Guest_sloshyj_*

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 11:23 AM

QUOTE (LonghornBuc @ Jun 27 2009, 12:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Nyler Morgans LF defense has to be the worst argument ever for why he is anything of value. For a guy who runs circles and half moons when a straight line would work better, I just dont buy he is worth any measurable amount of runs over his predecessor.

You're recalling his routes in CF last season. He's been a lot better in LF from what I've seen.

Still, he's best suited as a CF. That's how he's no doubt being marketed.
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#33 User is offline   Jeff King 

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 11:26 AM

QUOTE (Pjoma @ Jun 27 2009, 09:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Fuck singling out OPS, fuck isolating % of stolen bases and screw looking at just his defense. WAR is the only thing that matters;


I could be wrong on this, but I don't remember you talking about WAR until about a month ago. Now, suddenly it's the only thing that matters?
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#34 Guest_sloshyj_*

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 11:57 AM

QUOTE (Jeff King @ Jun 27 2009, 12:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I could be wrong on this, but I don't remember you talking about WAR until about a month ago. Now, suddenly it's the only thing that matters?

I don't know that this is fair. I think the board as a whole has only dipped a toe in these "whole player" stats. It's taken having a player, undervalued by so many by traditional metrics, to seek understanding of VORP, UZR and WARP.

I don't think it's the only thing that matters, and I think PJoma is just annoyed by comments like "I don't care what stat you show me, Nyjer Morgan stinks."

Nyjer Morgan's worth is as a CF, and given that he's had Nate McLouth and now Andrew McCutchen blocking him there, I don't think it hurts his trade value that he's playing out of position.

The point was made by several people here that playing Nyjer Morgan was foolhardy, because his trade value was nonexistent. Now that a trade rumor has been circulated, the fact that its Lastings Milledge means that he's still worthless, because Lastings' star has tarnished so.

But Lastings Milledge does fit NH's philosophy - get underrated talent back for overrated talent. Target guys like Jose Tabata and Gorkys Hernandez and Andy LaRoche - once top-5 guys who have fallen out of favor at a young age. At the same time, push guys like Nate McLouth and Nyjer Morgan, who are perhaps overrated at the time. And I admit, Nyjer is likely overrated by some GMs. While people here call him crap, I believe some GMs see his defense as reason enough.

And I must say, if I'm the Nationals, trying to keep Adam Dunn in the outfield, a guy like Nyjer could help... though, probably less than expected.

All that to say, the difference between NH and DL is so great to me, I continue to have trouble buying in to this group-think that he's such a failure. So you'll have to forgive those of us who feel this way, who feel like we're trying to demonstrate this on a daily basis to people who turn a blind eye out of some sort of bias or misinformation or both.
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#35 User is offline   Penguin 

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 12:15 PM

QUOTE (Pjoma @ Jun 27 2009, 09:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Fuck singling out OPS, fuck isolating % of stolen bases and screw looking at just his defense. WAR is the only thing that matters; a TOTAL evaluation of what a player adds to a team or value in trade.

This post is so wrong it's time I sent out a big "fuck you" to Pjoma.

First of all, as Jeff King said, you never mentioned WAR on this board up until a few weeks ago. So how all of a sudden is it "the only thing that matters"? Could you be saying that because it conveniently supports your argument? Listen, if it's as simple as saying WAR is the new Moneyball and you think NH is trying to use it as his foundation for building a winner, fine. But don't attempt to insult everyone's intelligence by saying it's all that matters. Because any person who thinks Nyjer Morgan is the best LF in baseball is an idiot. And any statistics that says it's true is greatly flawed. And I guarantee you when NH makes a move that doesn't isupport WAR, you won't mention it.

But you know what Pjoma, I've spent a good amount of time defending you. Despite rarely agreeing with you, I thought you offered a generally unique an interesting perspective. But your posting over the last month or so is so horrendeously bad, even you should be ashamed of yourself. Especially for attempting to call out LHB for his player evalutations. Aren't you the same person who claimed 2 million fans were going to cheer as Eric Hinske hit 25 HR's? Weren't you the one who said you would be shocked in Brandon Moss didn't OPS .800 this season?

But let's take a look at the draft for a moment to truly put your lack of objectivity and credibilty into question.

First, when the rumors of the Pirates taking Fatchez with the first pick first surfaced, you had this to say:

QUOTE
I think it's a bit premature to be taking Law's comments about anything the Pirates are up to, don't you? If he's a supp pick player and we like him, why can't we go after him with our Scheppers pick, where we need certainty or we lose the pick? If the Pirates want to go after Sano hard and spend smarter at the #4 pick, there's certainly going to be two arms there that they could pick and sign for much less than Alvarez got.

But, if it makes sense to buy into Law's spew, let's all do it so we can rail on our management's draft judgement.

Typical.


And when challenged about it, he responded with this:

QUOTE
No, fuck you! Only someone like you can take a rumor, a rumor from a clueless fuck like Law, and make a definitive post that is based on the conclusion that it's set in stone. Talk about it all you fucking want to, but just like all your other premature conclusive posts over the past year that have been so wrong, this will be too.


So not only was that premature conclusive post accurate, it was more right than had you predicted Hinske hitting 6 homeruns.

And then just hours before the draft, you responded to a post from someone saying they will wait to get pissed about the Fatchez pick when it happens with his:

QUOTE
Then I will (also get pissed). I have to go and play in my golf league and won't be back for that first pick. I'll be gripping until I get home and either see a board meltdown or, at least, a pretty universal affirmation of a good selection.


And then immediately after they drafted Sanchez, he had this to say:

QUOTE
Hey, shit for brains, if you took the time to read the threads, I've already taken the stand for weeks that there is depth at catcher, enough to allow the Pirates to get a value one in the second or third round. I also said that, although I believe that Sanchez is cleary the best backstop in the draft, I would be using my first pick on White, Crow or Matzek. I also pointed out 3-5 more players that I would take inside their first 3-4 picks. I do not feel that Sanchez is the best pick we have at #4 and I would rather see the pitchers come off the board with our first two picks, followed by either a value pick at C and the HS 1B Malm with the 3rd.

I'm not sure why you would think that Sloshy or I would either approve of the pick, or feel the need to defend it. I can't speak for Slosh, but I actually take the time to prepare for the draft and actually have a clue what's going on. I have no problem being critical of certain picks, or other players being passed over by us. For someone as ill-informed and clue-less as yourself to make a comment like that about either of us is what, cool? Gutsy? Or, simply an ass-wipe's comment?

I DON'T WANT SANCHEZ WITH OUR FIRST PICK!


You then went silent on the topic for an unsual couple of days only to return with constant posts about how thin the draft was and how none of the other players taken immediately after Fatchez were very good (players you suggested the Pirates take). But your obvious ball sucking came after this post which completely flew in the face of what you had been saying before and immediately after the draft:

QUOTE
I'm curious as to where the Pirates said they took Sanchez to save the money to get Sano. It seems, from what I read and what some of the GM's said, that after the first two guys, there was little to no seperaration in the players in the 1st round. I don't think we took Sanchez so we could take Sano. I think we took Sanchez because he was the player they wanted and the player that allowed them to sign as many of the upside HS pitchers that will be far about slot.

When you see the Indians taking what they term as an 8th inning /closer arm and the Braves taking Minor (a pitcher with not a lot of ceiling over a 4th/5th SP), I think it's pretty clear how bad the 1st round really was. I think the Pirates see more value in overpaying the next 15 picks than they do in overpaying their #1 pick. I also believe that they got a guy that will be an MLB player, in Sanchez, whereas not a lot of teams picking in 3-30 can be claiming the same thing.

If this all results in their ability to pay Sano even more, because they didn't overpay a guy in the 1st round, why should we be bitching?



But then there was your blatant avoidance of this comment by your hero, Kevin Goldstein:

"This deal was probably agreed to before the selection even took place. The question is of course, why? He wasn't going to go anywhere near this high if the Pirates didn't take him, so couldn't he have been had for a million dollars less, giving the club money to spend elsewhere? It's not as if anyone else was going to pay him this much, so why did Pittsburgh? It's almost like they spent an extra million dollars just to prove that they really liked the guy."

So fucking please spare us your questioning of other's player evaluations. When someone so obviously reaches for any defense of this organization and attempts to support certain players with lines like "He's like a freakin' pitbull on the mound", you can't be taken seriously. Remember, you are the same boob who defended Dave Littlefield right up until the day he was fired. So how can you expect anyone to take your support of NH seriously when it clear you'll use any justification to support this organization?
"The business of baseball is to make money, not break even. I don't understand why you think the Pirates should run their team like a charity." - Willlton 6/18/2009

"The Bay trade doesn't look like it (a slam dunk winner), but if you take into account the fact that all they lost was eight months of Jason Bay's services, as well as the fact that even the Red Sox look like they won't be able to re-sign him, it's not nearly the loser many people seem to think." - tWTM 11/26/2009

"Morton is finding himself, now while this may sound weird and out there, but the fact he put on a solo concert at Piratefest shows he finally has the confidence that he lacked within himself that he didn't have in the lower minors." - aso513 2/8/2010

"Dave Littlefield vindicated." - Xiga 4/30/2011 after one scoreless inning of relief by Daniel Moskos.

"Hanrahan and Cedeno would be a gross overpayment for Belt. Sorry, but I'll stick with my realistic analysis of the market and the teams involved." - Steve Zielinski 5/25/2011

"He (Barmes) could have a .000 Batting Average and still be an asset." - bradlej31 5/28/2012

"The last time the Pirates won an extra-inning game in St. Louis that lasted at least 16 frames was April 20, 1986 at Chicago." - Kristy Robinson 8/19/2012

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#36 Guest_sloshyj_*

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 12:35 PM

QUOTE (Penguin @ Jun 27 2009, 01:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
When someone so obviously reaches for any defense of this organization and attempts to support certain players with lines like "He's like a freakin' pitbull on the mound", you can't be taken seriously.



Here's a pitbull in LF, and it is meant represent Nyjer Morgan.
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#37 User is offline   Jwill55sk 

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 12:48 PM

QUOTE (Penguin @ Jun 27 2009, 12:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
This post is so wrong it's time I sent out a big "fuck you" to Pjoma.

First of all, as Jeff King said, you never mentioned WAR on this board up until a few weeks ago. So how all of a sudden is it "the only thing that matters"? Could you be saying that because it conveniently supports your argument? Listen, if it's as simple as saying WAR is the new Moneyball and you think NH is trying to use it as his foundation for building a winner, fine. But don't attempt to insult everyone's intelligence by saying it's all that matters. Because any person who thinks Nyjer Morgan is the best LF in baseball is an idiot. And any statistics that says it's true is greatly flawed. And I guarantee you when NH makes a move that doesn't isupport WAR, you won't mention it.

But you know what Pjoma, I've spent a good amount of time defending you. Despite rarely agreeing with you, I thought you offered a generally unique an interesting perspective. But your posting over the last month or so is so horrendeously bad, even you should be ashamed of yourself. Especially for attempting to call out LHB for his player evalutations. Aren't you the same person who claimed 2 million fans were going to cheer as Eric Hinske hit 25 HR's? Weren't you the one who said you would be shocked in Brandon Moss didn't OPS .800 this season?

But let's take a look at the draft for a moment to truly put your lack of objectivity and credibilty into question.

First, when the rumors of the Pirates taking Fatchez with the first pick first surfaced, you had this to say:



And when challenged about it, he responded with this:



So not only was that premature conclusive post accurate, it was more right than had you predicted Hinske hitting 6 homeruns.

And then just hours before the draft, you responded to a post from someone saying they will wait to get pissed about the Fatchez pick when it happens with his:



And then immediately after they drafted Sanchez, he had this to say:



You then went silent on the topic for an unsual couple of days only to return with constant posts about how thin the draft was and how none of the other players taken immediately after Fatchez were very good (players you suggested the Pirates take).

But then there was your blatant avoidance of this comment by your hero, Kevin Goldstein:

"This deal was probably agreed to before the selection even took place. The question is of course, why? He wasn't going to go anywhere near this high if the Pirates didn't take him, so couldn't he have been had for a million dollars less, giving the club money to spend elsewhere? It's not as if anyone else was going to pay him this much, so why did Pittsburgh? It's almost like they spent an extra million dollars just to prove that they really liked the guy."

So fucking please spare us your questioning of other's player evaluations. When someone so obviously reaches for any defense of this organization and attempts to support certain players with lines like "He's like a freakin' pitbull on the mound", you can't be taken seriously. Remember, you are the same boob who defended Dave Littlefield right up until the day he was fired. So how can you expect anyone to take your support of NH seriously when it clear you'll use any justification to support this organization?


PWNED.
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#38 User is offline   greybeard131 

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 01:06 PM

QUOTE (Jwill55sk @ Jun 27 2009, 12:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
PWNED.

BRILLIANT POST JWILL!!!
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FIRE WINDBAG COONELLY!
FIRE CLINT HURDLE!
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#39 User is online   GoBucs21 

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 01:32 PM

Any stat that puts Nyjer Morgan in the same zip code as Jason Bay has to be questioned.

Its very likely that PJ only looks at WARP because its the only one that supports his conclusions.

I agree with others who question Milledge being the corner stone of this deal. Its a trade of three fungible players; a head case, a lower half of the rotation starter with little MLB experience, and an aging, speedy under performing outfielder. There are no corner stones in this deal.

I can see why the Pirates want more than Milledge. I do think Stammen and Milledge is too much for Morgan. Given the state of the Nationals bullpen, we could throw in almost any reliever and make this deal happen.

That said, if the Pirates could get Milledge and Stammen for a reliever, its a steal for the Pirates.
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#40 User is offline   Jwill55sk 

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Posted 27 June 2009 - 01:35 PM

QUOTE (GoBucs21 @ Jun 27 2009, 01:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Any stat that puts Nyjer Morgan in the same zip code as Jason Bay has to be questioned.

Its very likely that PJ only looks at WARP because its the only one that supports his conclusions.

I agree with others who question Milledge being the corner stone of this deal. Its a trade of three fungible players; a head case, a lower half of the rotation starter with little MLB experience, and an aging, speedy under performing outfielder. There are no corner stones in this deal.

I can see why the Pirates want more than Milledge. I do think Stammen and Milledge is too much for Morgan. Given the state of the Nationals bullpen, we could throw in almost any reliever and make this deal happen.

That said, if the Pirates could get Milledge and Stammen for a reliever, its a steal for the Pirates.


I still say that NH would be insane not to deal Nyjer Morgan for Lastings Milledge straight up.
"DePaul is about as relevant to this argument as the Steelers are." -Monarch, on a discussion of the quality of the Big East conference
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