Pittsburgh Pirates: The Offense So Far - Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Offense So Far Should we be worried? Rate Topic: -----

#1 Guest_blurjose_*

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Posted 14 June 2015 - 11:53 AM

TEAM STATS (NL rankings out of 15 teams)
Runs: 9th
OBP: 10th
SLG: 10th
OPS: 11th

INDIVIDUAL STATS

Polanski: OPS+ 85
WAR 0.7

Marte: OPS+ 116
WAR 1.3

Cutch: OPS+ +134
WAR 1.8

Walker: OPS+ 91
WAR 0.2

Harrison: OPS+ 90
WAR 0.5

Pedro: OPS+ 108
WAR -0.2

Cervelli: OPS+ 121
WAR 1.0

Mercer: OPS+ 58
WAR 0.1

Kang: OPS+ 112
WAR 1.2

Rodriguez: OPS+ 78
WAR 0.1

Hart: OPS+ 37
WAR -0.5

Tabata OPS+ 71
WAR -0.3

Stewart: OPS+ 91
WAR 0.6

Notes:

--I understand it's still early in the season so this is not definitive. It's just a state of the union type thing.

--There's is not a single regular player from our team last year that is performing at least year's levels other than Marte. Even though Cutch has great numbers compared to mortals, these are his worst numbers in a few years. So far Walker is having a career worst season as well.

--The lack of walks is a real problem.

--It's clear that pitching is driving this team to this point; to be ranked as we are in key offensive categories while still having a good record and run differential speaks to Cole, Burnett, and Liriano's dominance (though I'm too lazy to do this for the pitching).

--Guys I expect to improve this season (based on potential and/or past numbers): Cutch, Walker, Harrison (slightly), Polanski (slightly), Rodriguez (slightly) Mercer, Tabata (slightly), Marte (slightly).

--Guys I expect to regress a bit: Stewart.

--Performing as we should expect them to: Alvarez, Cervelli (he might improve slightly based on past couple of years, but I'm also taking into account he's never been main starter for a full season), Hart.

--Mystery: Kang
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#2 User is offline   Jeff King 

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Posted 14 June 2015 - 12:16 PM

View Postblurjose, on 14 June 2015 - 11:53 AM, said:

--It's clear that pitching is driving this team to this point; to be ranked as we are in key offensive categories while still having a good record and run differential speaks to Cole, Burnett, and Liriano's dominance (though I'm too lazy to do this for the pitching).


I'm not concerned about the offense. I still think that we have enough position players with enough of a proven track record and enough power that over the course of the season, we should be fine on offense.

It's the pitching that I think we need to be concerned about. Cole has taken a huge step forward and has been a legitimate ace so far. AJ has pitched much better than I expected him to. I don't think it's realistic to expect either of them to keep up this pace for the entire season. They could each hit some rough patches and still finish the season with great numbers. But the dip in performance that levels off their stats will likely have an effect on wins and losses.

We need to acquire a legitimate starter to try to offset the potential decrease in performance from Cole and AJ.
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#3 Guest_blurjose_*

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Posted 14 June 2015 - 12:22 PM

View PostJeff King, on 14 June 2015 - 12:16 PM, said:

I'm not concerned about the offense. I still think that we have enough position players with enough of a proven track record and enough power that over the course of the season, we should be fine on offense.

It's the pitching that I think we need to be concerned about. Cole has taken a huge step forward and has been a legitimate ace so far. AJ has pitched much better than I expected him to. I don't think it's realistic to expect either of them to keep up this pace for the entire season. They could each hit some rough patches and still finish the season with great numbers. But the dip in performance that levels off their stats will likely really have an effect on wins and losses.

We need to acquire a legitimate starter to try to offset the potential decrease in performance from Cole and AJ.

I agree. I want a starter via trade and a bullpen arm (via trade or minors).

As I said, I expect some improvement offensively from many of the players we already have.

Having said that, if our offense had performed as expected (combined with our pitching so far) we'd have more wins to date (wins that count as much now as late season ones).

My point is that expecting improvement is not inconsistent with disappointment over what they've done to date.
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#4 Guest_sloshyj_*

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Posted 14 June 2015 - 12:28 PM

From April 29 to May 29, the team had .756 OPS. They've regressed slightly in June, but not by much. The last few games have been clunkers, but they've had double-digit hits in 6 of 13 games thus far in June. They had friggin' 17 LOB in the 1-0 win over the Phillies on Friday. Just ridiculous.

It isn't necessarily that they aren't hitting, its that they aren't performing in situational hitting opportunities, and that's just lately. For the seasonthey've hit much better with runners on than not.

This is an injury year for McCutchen as far as I'm concerned. It seemed he went crazy for a few weeks and then twinged it a bit, and that's got him on his heels.

I think Walker had his career year last year, and has been so-so this season. When everyone else was hitting the shit out of the ball in May, he lost 90 pts on his OPS.

I expect Harrison to go ape shit again and get back up to the .790-.800 OPS player most assumed he'd be, and I expect Polanco to turn the corner... eventually.

Not concerned yet by the offense, but if it lags going into the ASB, I think we should think about targeting another Marlon Byrd-like addition. Unlike in past years, we don't have anybody coming up from the farm to help.
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#5 User is offline   Vegetable 

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Posted 14 June 2015 - 12:29 PM

Only 50 HRs so far - 12th in the NL. They ended up third last year with 9 players in double digits. Not likely to happen this year.
"We’ll be comfortable adding one (starter),” he said. “We’ll be comfortable adding nobody if it’s just not there. We don’t feel we are driven to force it. If we can add one that makes sense for us, that’s great. If we can add two that make sense … then we do that.”
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#6 Guest_blurjose_*

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Posted 14 June 2015 - 12:34 PM

Again though, we can agree that we expect improvement but still point out how the offense has fallen short to date. It's not black/white. The offense hasn't scored enough runs and that is just as big a deal as the fact that, for example, Jeff Locke has sucked ass.

The fact that I agree adding arms is a priority is based on the fact that I expect improvement from our offense with what we already have but not so much with our pitching staff.
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#7 User is offline   Gideon Clarke 

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Posted 14 June 2015 - 12:45 PM

View PostVegetable, on 14 June 2015 - 12:29 PM, said:

Only 50 HRs so far - 12th in the NL. They ended up third last year with 9 players in double digits. Not likely to happen this year.

Marte and Pedro are already there. McCutchen almost certainly will be. Walker and Harrison are on pace to get there, and probably should barring injury. Polanco and Kang are nearly on pace to do so, and I predict that both of them will. Mercer and Rodriguez could both conceivably hit ten or more. They both hit 12 last year. The main problem is that ideally they would be taking plate appearances away from each other. I'd rather have an actual bat-first guy in the role Rodriguez has been forced into. I think one of them will hit at least ten this year, but only one.

The other problem is that neither of this year's catchers are going to sniff ten homers.
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#8 User is offline   mzimmerman81 

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Posted 14 June 2015 - 01:42 PM

So you're saying that the offense isn't fine?
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#9 User is offline   silverspring 

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Posted 14 June 2015 - 02:32 PM

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but didn't they improve a lot since April? without looking at numbers, I have a general sense that they are moving in the right direction, even with a few crappy games recently. But, in general, an upward trend. I could be completely wrong about that - just the sense I'm getting. I expect them to be somewhere around the top five by the end of the year. And, yes, I understand that that means they go on quite a run. I think it will happen.
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#10 Guest_blurjose_*

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Posted 14 June 2015 - 02:38 PM

View Postmzimmerman81, on 14 June 2015 - 01:42 PM, said:

So you're saying that the offense isn't fine?

Saying it isn't fine SO FAR.
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#11 Guest_defdog_*

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Posted 14 June 2015 - 09:49 PM

If you have no control over it, how you can u be worried?
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#12 Guest_def retard_*

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Posted 14 June 2015 - 11:32 PM

View Postdefdog, on 14 June 2015 - 09:49 PM, said:

If you have no control over it, how you can u be worried?


lol

i don't remember if I wrote this or if it was me lol
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#13 User is offline   buckeyebucco 

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Posted 14 June 2015 - 11:56 PM

View Postdef retard, on 14 June 2015 - 11:32 PM, said:

lol

i don't remember if I wrote this or if it was me lol

Place seems a bit weird since I last left it
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#14 User is offline   Martini 

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Posted 15 June 2015 - 06:26 AM

View Postbuckeyebucco, on 14 June 2015 - 11:56 PM, said:

Place seems a bit weird since I last left it

There are fewer members but more posters if that makes sense.
Get it?
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#15 User is offline   Yak 

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Posted 15 June 2015 - 09:16 AM

How nuts is it to bunt guys over to second when you look at our left-on-base numbers ?
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#16 User is offline   GoBucs21 

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Posted 15 June 2015 - 09:47 AM

View PostYak, on 15 June 2015 - 09:16 AM, said:

How nuts is it to bunt guys over to second with anyone other than the pitcher hitting with no outs?

Fixed.
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#17 User is offline   Gideon Clarke 

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Posted 15 June 2015 - 11:28 AM

View PostYak, on 15 June 2015 - 09:16 AM, said:

How nuts is it to bunt guys over to second when you look at our left-on-base numbers ?

I don't know about nuts, but it's fucking dumb.

Expected runs per inning by base-out situation:

1B, 0 outs: .941 ---> 2B, 1 out: .721
1B, 1 out: .562 ---> 2B, 2 outs: .348


Odds of scoring at least one run in an inning, by base-out situation:

1B, 0 outs: .441 ---> 2B, 1 out: .418
1B, 1 out: .284 ---> 2B, 2 outs: .230

If executed correctly, the sacrifice bunt hurts the team's chances of scoring. It is dumb. The only situations in which a sacrifice bunt is an accepable call are if it's the pitcher, or if there are runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody out in a tie or one-run game. This strategy increases the team's chances of scoring at least one run from .643 to .698, though at the cost of reducing the inning's expected run total from 1.556 to 1.447
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#18 User is offline   Yak 

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Posted 15 June 2015 - 12:54 PM

View PostGoBucs21, on 15 June 2015 - 09:47 AM, said:

Fixed.


Worley .231 (better than Mercer)

Cole .185 (Hart .186)

You could even expect Burnett (.111) and Locke (.100) to come through with RISP more often than the team as a whole for long stretches of LOBsters.

Fix your own stuff. :)
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#19 User is offline   Yak 

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Posted 15 June 2015 - 05:16 PM

So a pitcher grounds into a DP with a RISP. Big whoop. Stats say the guy's gonna die out there anyhow. But if he gets a hit, we (likely) score. 10% in that situation beats near 0%.
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#20 User is offline   gahran 

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Posted 16 June 2015 - 12:04 PM

Last 30 days. All of the regulars:
McCutchen - 1.047
Cervelli - .947
Mercer (?!?) - .822 (only 64 ABs)
Alvarez - .798
Harrison - .795
Marte - .766
Kang - .719
Polanco - .669
Walker - .621
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