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Defending Tony Sanchez

#21 Guest_sloshyj_*

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 04:15 PM

QUOTE (Pjoma @ Jun 25 2009, 05:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Again, it's too early to tell if this plan was cutting edge, an epic failure or somewhere in between. To definitively label it as any one of them now is impossible.

+1 to this.

I reacted emotionally the day of. I am now firmly of the belief that it's too soon to judge. I continue to lean thinking Sanchez was a poor draft choice, but I am willing to entertain justifications for it.

Because I am enlightened and a better person than a lot of others.
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#22 User is offline   Penguin 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 04:16 PM

QUOTE (Willton @ Jun 25 2009, 01:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The end of the article also has a link to a rather interesting article in The Hardball Times, but I'm sure that author there was bought off by Nutting & Co.


First-Round Picks:
College Hitters:
.76 WAB/year
High School Hitters: .75 WAB/year
College Pitchers: .49 WAB/year
High School Pitchers: .35 WAB/year

Third-Round Picks:
College Hitters-
.04 WAB/year
High School Hitters- .10 WAB/year
College Pitchers- .11 WAB/year
High School Pitchers- .08 WAB/year

I can only imagine how those number plummet as you move down the rounds. So can someone please explain to me how bypassing high end talent in the first round while hoping to get it in the later rounds makes any sense?

"The business of baseball is to make money, not break even. I don't understand why you think the Pirates should run their team like a charity." - Willlton 6/18/2009

"The Bay trade doesn't look like it (a slam dunk winner), but if you take into account the fact that all they lost was eight months of Jason Bay's services, as well as the fact that even the Red Sox look like they won't be able to re-sign him, it's not nearly the loser many people seem to think." - tWTM 11/26/2009

"Morton is finding himself, now while this may sound weird and out there, but the fact he put on a solo concert at Piratefest shows he finally has the confidence that he lacked within himself that he didn't have in the lower minors." - aso513 2/8/2010

"Dave Littlefield vindicated." - Xiga 4/30/2011 after one scoreless inning of relief by Daniel Moskos.

"Hanrahan and Cedeno would be a gross overpayment for Belt. Sorry, but I'll stick with my realistic analysis of the market and the teams involved." - Steve Zielinski 5/25/2011

"He (Barmes) could have a .000 Batting Average and still be an asset." - bradlej31 5/28/2012

"The last time the Pirates won an extra-inning game in St. Louis that lasted at least 16 frames was April 20, 1986 at Chicago." - Kristy Robinson 8/19/2012

"I want to tweet something clever and interesting to you that will earn your respect and make you smile, since you do that to me all the time." - jpbucco to Colin Dunlap 4/12/2016

"If the Pirates had acquired Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins, Im not sure they would have won the Benedict trade." - David Todd 11/11/2015
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#23 User is offline   mvk112 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 04:17 PM

QUOTE (Pjoma @ Jun 25 2009, 05:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
4. If we were to land 3-4 of the 7 (Pounders, Stevenson, Cain, VonRosenberg, Dodsen, Dermody, Nuncio), all who could have landed up being 1st-3rd round selections in 3 years and get them into camp now, at less $, the $ spent now will be such a value v. what would have been spent acquired for them later.


I would say they need about 5 or 6 of the following to make it worthwhile -

Zackry Dodson
Zach von Rosenberg
Colton Cain
Michael Heller
Joshua Urban
Jordan Cooper
Trent Stevenson
Matt Dermody
Keifer Nuncio

I wouldn't include Brooks Pounders in that group, because according to some places, he wasn't an overdraft and he didn't get a big signing compared to where he was picked. If you can believe that BA isn't always right, which it seems that some here aren't willing to believe in the case of the draft, but do believe in the case of how each teams prospects are rated, that is.
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#24 User is offline   mvk112 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 04:20 PM

QUOTE (Penguin @ Jun 25 2009, 05:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I can only imagine how those number plummet as you move down the rounds. So can someone please explain to me how bypassing high end talent in the first round while hoping to get it in the later rounds makes any sense?


The draft has been changing alot lately due to signability. Alot more kids slip due to these concerns than ever before. As a general rule, those numbers are correct, but the Pirates weren't drafting 6th, 7th, 8th, etc. round talent, they were drafting what was generally considered 2nd-3rd round talent throughout a bunch of those rounds. There were, what, about 8-10 top 50 type guys drafted on the second and third days of the draft?
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#25 User is offline   Penguin 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 04:26 PM

QUOTE (mvk112 @ Jun 25 2009, 02:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The draft has been changing alot lately due to signability. Alot more kids slip due to these concerns than ever before. As a general rule, those numbers are correct, but the Pirates weren't drafting 6th, 7th, 8th, etc. round talent, they were drafting what was generally considered 2nd-3rd round talent throughout a bunch of those rounds. There were, what, about 8-10 top 50 type guys drafted on the second and third days of the draft?

Oh, there's not doubt the Pirates drafted players that were ranked higher than where they were drafted. But even assuming they were 3rd round talent, the dropoff in WAR from the first round to the third round is significantly higher than the drop of from first round college hitter to first round high school pitchers.
"The business of baseball is to make money, not break even. I don't understand why you think the Pirates should run their team like a charity." - Willlton 6/18/2009

"The Bay trade doesn't look like it (a slam dunk winner), but if you take into account the fact that all they lost was eight months of Jason Bay's services, as well as the fact that even the Red Sox look like they won't be able to re-sign him, it's not nearly the loser many people seem to think." - tWTM 11/26/2009

"Morton is finding himself, now while this may sound weird and out there, but the fact he put on a solo concert at Piratefest shows he finally has the confidence that he lacked within himself that he didn't have in the lower minors." - aso513 2/8/2010

"Dave Littlefield vindicated." - Xiga 4/30/2011 after one scoreless inning of relief by Daniel Moskos.

"Hanrahan and Cedeno would be a gross overpayment for Belt. Sorry, but I'll stick with my realistic analysis of the market and the teams involved." - Steve Zielinski 5/25/2011

"He (Barmes) could have a .000 Batting Average and still be an asset." - bradlej31 5/28/2012

"The last time the Pirates won an extra-inning game in St. Louis that lasted at least 16 frames was April 20, 1986 at Chicago." - Kristy Robinson 8/19/2012

"I want to tweet something clever and interesting to you that will earn your respect and make you smile, since you do that to me all the time." - jpbucco to Colin Dunlap 4/12/2016

"If the Pirates had acquired Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins, Im not sure they would have won the Benedict trade." - David Todd 11/11/2015
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#26 User is offline   mvk112 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 04:31 PM

QUOTE (Penguin @ Jun 25 2009, 05:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Oh, there's not doubt the Pirates drafted players that were ranked higher than where they were drafted. But even assuming they were 3rd round talent, the dropoff in WAR from the first round to the third round is significantly higher than the drop of from first round college hitter to first round high school pitchers.


But if they can add 6-8 players in that range, it will likely help as much, or more. I don't like the Sanchez pick, but it seems like the strategy was to get more good players for the same amount of money. It looks like 4 HS pitchers in the 3rd round = 1 HS pitcher in the 1st round. The Pirates could possibly have about 4-6 3rd round type HS pitchers to go along with the college bat in the first.
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#27 User is offline   The Lumber Company 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 04:34 PM

QUOTE (mvk112 @ Jun 25 2009, 05:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
But if they can add 6-8 players in that range, it will likely help as much, or more. I don't like the Sanchez pick, but it seems like the strategy was to get more good players for the same amount of money. It looks like 4 HS pitchers in the 3rd round = 1 HS pitcher in the 1st round. The Pirates could possibly have about 4-6 3rd round type HS pitchers to go along with the college bat in the first.

Again, this brings us back to the same old argument. It does spread out the risk in a wider variety of players and increases the overall talent depth, but in my way of thinking, it also lessens the opportunity to get a truly impact talent.
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#28 Guest_defdog_*

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 04:45 PM

QUOTE (Penguin @ Jun 25 2009, 04:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
First-Round Picks:
College Hitters:
.76 WAB/year
High School Hitters: .75 WAB/year
College Pitchers: .49 WAB/year
High School Pitchers: .35 WAB/year

Third-Round Picks:
College Hitters-
.04 WAB/year
High School Hitters- .10 WAB/year
College Pitchers- .11 WAB/year
High School Pitchers- .08 WAB/year


Those numbers tell me it's better to take a hitter in the 1st round and not a pitcher.

PRO Sanchez.
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#29 User is offline   Penguin 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 04:56 PM

QUOTE (defdog @ Jun 25 2009, 02:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Those numbers tell me it's better to take a hitter in the 1st round and not a pitcher.

PRO Sanchez.

Do you ever get embarassed for how stupid you look? Or are you too stupid to even realize?

Supplemental/Second-Round Picks:
College Hitters:
.20 WAB/year

First-Round Picks:
High School Pitchers:
.35 WAB/year

Considering Fatchez was considered the 30th best prospect.................

.35 > .20

"The business of baseball is to make money, not break even. I don't understand why you think the Pirates should run their team like a charity." - Willlton 6/18/2009

"The Bay trade doesn't look like it (a slam dunk winner), but if you take into account the fact that all they lost was eight months of Jason Bay's services, as well as the fact that even the Red Sox look like they won't be able to re-sign him, it's not nearly the loser many people seem to think." - tWTM 11/26/2009

"Morton is finding himself, now while this may sound weird and out there, but the fact he put on a solo concert at Piratefest shows he finally has the confidence that he lacked within himself that he didn't have in the lower minors." - aso513 2/8/2010

"Dave Littlefield vindicated." - Xiga 4/30/2011 after one scoreless inning of relief by Daniel Moskos.

"Hanrahan and Cedeno would be a gross overpayment for Belt. Sorry, but I'll stick with my realistic analysis of the market and the teams involved." - Steve Zielinski 5/25/2011

"He (Barmes) could have a .000 Batting Average and still be an asset." - bradlej31 5/28/2012

"The last time the Pirates won an extra-inning game in St. Louis that lasted at least 16 frames was April 20, 1986 at Chicago." - Kristy Robinson 8/19/2012

"I want to tweet something clever and interesting to you that will earn your respect and make you smile, since you do that to me all the time." - jpbucco to Colin Dunlap 4/12/2016

"If the Pirates had acquired Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins, Im not sure they would have won the Benedict trade." - David Todd 11/11/2015
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#30 User is offline   Willton 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 05:11 PM

QUOTE (The Lumber Company @ Jun 25 2009, 05:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Again, this brings us back to the same old argument. It does spread out the risk in a wider variety of players and increases the overall talent depth, but in my way of thinking, it also lessens the opportunity to get a truly impact talent.

I disagree. Many of the game's current elite players were not drafted in the first round. See Brandon Webb, Albert Pujols, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Jonathon Papelbon, Dan Haren, Jake Peavy, Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis, Brad Hawpe, etc. Instead of placing all of our chips into one player, Huntington is placing significant-but-not-tremendous investments in a larger pool of possible major league stars.
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#31 User is offline   Jwill55sk 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 05:21 PM

QUOTE (Willton @ Jun 25 2009, 05:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I disagree. Many of the game's current elite players were not drafted in the first round. See Brandon Webb, Albert Pujols, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Jonathon Papelbon, Dan Haren, Jake Peavy, Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis, Brad Hawpe, etc. Instead of placing all of our chips into one player, Huntington is placing significant-but-not-tremendous investments in a larger pool of possible major league stars.


Wait, Jason Bay is an elite player again? This is getting difficult to keep up with.
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#32 Guest_sloshyj_*

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 05:32 PM

QUOTE (Jwill55sk @ Jun 25 2009, 06:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Wait, Jason Bay is an elite player again? This is getting difficult to keep up with.

Who was arguing that he wasn't? I think that other thread was debating Jason Bay on July 31, 2008.

He's performing at an elite level in 2009.

Go practice saying difficult players' names.
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#33 User is offline   cbh 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 05:38 PM

QUOTE (Willton @ Jun 25 2009, 06:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I disagree. Many of the game's current elite players were not drafted in the first round. See Brandon Webb, Albert Pujols, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Jonathon Papelbon, Dan Haren, Jake Peavy, Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis, Brad Hawpe, etc. Instead of placing all of our chips into one player, Huntington is placing significant-but-not-tremendous investments in a larger pool of possible major league stars.



Your 2008 NL All-Stars:

G. Soto: 11th Round
A. Pujols: 13th Round
C. Utley: 1st Round
C. Jones: 1st Round

H. Ramirez: FA
R. Braun: 1st Round
k. Fukodome: FA
A. Soriano: FA
A. Cook: 2nd Round
R. Dempster: 3rd Round
D. Haren: 2nd Round
B. Lidge: 1st Round
T. Lincecum: 1st Round
C. Marmol: FA
B. Sheets: 1st Round
E. Volquez: FA
B. Wagner: 1st Round
B. Webb: 8th Round
B. Wilson: 24th Round
K. Wood: 1st Round
C. Zambrano: FA
R. Martin: 17th Round
B. McCann: 2nd Round
A. Gonzalez: 1st Round
D. Uggla: 11th Round
A. Ramirez: FA
D. Wright: 1st Round
C. Guzman: FA
M. Tejada: FA
C. Hart: 11th Round
M. Holliday: 7th Round
R. Ludwick: 2nd Round
N. McLouth: 25th Round

So about 30% of the NL All-Stars last year were first round picks. I think what's more telling is the percentage of All-Stars that were taken in the first five rounds (about 42%). If we remove the amateur free agents the numbers go up even more (42% 1st rounders, 58% in the first five rounds).

The draft lasts 50 rounds. If you punt on the first five rounds, you're missing out on talent that has, in the baseball world, a fairly legitimate chance at being one of the best players on your team, if not in the league.
If I dared your son to do something, he'd be DEAD. I wouldn't do a wimpy dare, like "read a short story quickly". I'd have a real dare, like EAT A BAG OF FIRE!!!!"
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#34 Guest_sloshyj_*

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 05:46 PM

QUOTE (LonghornBuc @ Jun 25 2009, 06:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
And fuck you to the wait and seers on drafts and trades. Its really easy to be a GM five years after the fact. That has to be the most pussy excuse on this board.

I understand its fun to look back and see what the results are. But thats not the time to judge the moves. Gut up and take a stand. Either Fatchez is a #4 talent, or damn close to it, or it was a bad baseball pick. If you want to argue it was a good business decision, admit money was the driver, not talent.

I'm going to take a wait-and-see approach on dinner.

I'm waiting to see it on a fucking plate soon.
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#35 User is offline   CRIMHEAD 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 07:17 PM

QUOTE (Willton @ Jun 25 2009, 06:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I disagree. Many of the game's current elite players were not drafted in the first round. See Brandon Webb, Albert Pujols, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Jonathon Papelbon, Dan Haren, Jake Peavy, Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis, Brad Hawpe, etc. Instead of placing all of our chips into one player, Huntington is placing significant-but-not-tremendous investments in a larger pool of possible major league stars.


Which is exactly what Lumber said, so how are you disagreeing with him? Unless you are saying that there is an equally good chance of getting an all-star in the later rounds, which is just silly.
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#36 User is offline   CRIMHEAD 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 08:44 PM

QUOTE (Winters in Holland @ Jun 25 2009, 08:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
+1 great fucking post.

It'd be better to do a good job at the first 5 rounds, and simply punt the last 45 or however many there are now, instead of blowing the first 5, and drafting sexy overslot guys the rest of the way through.


.WiH.


Are you saying if you did the same thing in the 5th round it wouldn't look the same? Really?
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#37 User is offline   cbh 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 08:50 PM

QUOTE (CRIMHEAD @ Jun 25 2009, 09:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Are you saying if you did the same thing in the 5th round it wouldn't look the same? Really?


Do the same thing? I'm not sure what you mean.
If I dared your son to do something, he'd be DEAD. I wouldn't do a wimpy dare, like "read a short story quickly". I'd have a real dare, like EAT A BAG OF FIRE!!!!"
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#38 User is offline   mzimmerman81 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 09:33 PM

Just looking at the title and who started this, I knew it wouldn't disappoint.

It didn't and defdog is the icing on a retard cake
5 GP

10-16, 4-2B, 2-3B, 9 RBI, 6 R
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#39 User is offline   CRIMHEAD 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 09:36 PM

QUOTE (cbh @ Jun 25 2009, 09:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Do the same thing? I'm not sure what you mean.


I was being sarcastic...just suggesting that you highlight all the 5th rounders in the list. Seeing as there is a plethora of players past the first round that end up as all-stars.
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#40 User is offline   cbh 

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Posted 25 June 2009 - 09:52 PM

QUOTE (CRIMHEAD @ Jun 25 2009, 10:36 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I was being sarcastic...just suggesting that you highlight all the 5th rounders in the list. Seeing as there is a plethora of players past the first round that end up as all-stars.


Oh, well sure. I mean looking at the NL roster 2/3rds of them were either later round picks or amateur free agents, but that's not a fair comparison.

The first round consists of 32 players, while rounds 2 - 50 total over 1500 players. So for every first round pick ten of them are all-star caliber (and I realize that I'm making that assumption based off of one all-star roster in only one league in only one year, and frankly I would guess that my 30% "success" estimate drops with more data), but for every later round pick the percentage absolutely plummets.

33 players on the NL roster and 14 of them were drafted after the first round...so 14 out of the 1500 players drafted that year is just under 1%. Again, that percentage should rise if you discount players who opted for college and additional years of data, but I would be really surprised if it crept over 10%


If I dared your son to do something, he'd be DEAD. I wouldn't do a wimpy dare, like "read a short story quickly". I'd have a real dare, like EAT A BAG OF FIRE!!!!"
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