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Pirates Accountability Thread Rate Topic: -----

#21 User is offline   Trey_Beamon 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 08:09 AM

77-85

I'm pretty confident that Cutch and Cole will have bounce-back seasons (with Cutch likely being traded by the deadline), Marte will be awesome defensively in CF and Taillon will continue to pitch like a No. 2-3-type starter.

After that? Who the hell knows. Polanco's injury is concerning, Kang's status is up in the air and it's hard to say what Bell will do in a bigger role, to say nothing of the issues (back end of the rotation, Cervelli injury concerns, Watson in the closer role, etc.) that have been present for a while.

To me, this almost seems like a more talented version of the 1993-2012 Pirates: That is, success is predicated on "ifs" and too much has to go right to contend.
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#22 User is offline   GoBucs21 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 08:24 AM

85-77

They have some offense and some starting pitching. They also don't have enough of either to be a really good team. Kang's issues are both a distraction and degrade the offense. Bell might be the only offensive threat in the infield without Kang. Still, he is unproven. The rotation looks solid but that depends on Nova being the Nova we saw with the Pirates. If he's the Nova with the Yankees, there's a problem. They are about one injury away from flipping my projection to 77-85.
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#23 User is offline   Gideon Clarke 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 08:25 AM

Cutch will bounce back. Everything else will be status quo offensively. Marte is a fringe All-Star. Polanco is what he is. Guys like Harrison and Mercer are bad.

Kang will be back eventually. The parts of America that aren't MADD care way more about baseball than drunk driving.


On the pitching side, I expect the rotation to be good again, mostly on the strength of Cole, Taillon, and a #3 that Neal finds under a rock somewhere. It happens often enough that it's a pattern and not just a coincidence.

That #3 won't be Hutchison, though. He blows. Kuhl and Nova won't blow, but they won't exactly be board favorites, either. They'll be a passable #4 and #5.

In terms of the bullpen, it will be average, but also kind of a roller-coaster. There will be about a months when it seems like the bullpen blows every game, and a month when it seems like the bullpen pulling every victory from the jaws of defeat.

88-74
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#24 User is offline   PSU4Lyfe 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 08:27 AM

I really want to say something like 89-73 and they get to the play in game. But I just can't look at this rotation and see that bust realistic. I do think a lot hinges on Chad Kuhl this year. Cole and Taillon have the chance to be a legit 1-2, and Nova surely can be a serviceable 3. They cannot have 2 dead spots at the back end of the rotation though. Even with a good pen and what I think will be a good offense, you can't have two complete stiffs back there burning up your pen.

I will say 82-80. This season really could go any direction
Disclaimer: This post in no way supports nor defends the signing of Rod Barajas.
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#25 User is offline   GoBucs21 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 08:32 AM

View PostDale Berra, on 28 March 2017 - 09:40 PM, said:

86-76

Thr offense will be better than most on the board think, but I can't go higher because of that rotation.

Not if Kang isn't here.

Even if Bell is all that and McCutchen is posting a 150 OPS+ it's a better than average offense but not great. Marte and Polanco are good but not great offensive threat. Look at the Cubs offense and look at the Bucs. One is great, the other is good at best.
People say I am ruthless. I am not ruthless. And if I find the man who is calling me ruthless, I shall destroy him.
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#26 User is offline   mzimmerman81 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 08:33 AM

The Pirates have no real power threat and only one legitimate TOR starter, and their bullpen is shit.

What am I missing here?
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#27 User is offline   GoBucs21 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 08:53 AM

View Postmzimmerman81, on 29 March 2017 - 08:33 AM, said:

The Pirates have no real power threat and only one legitimate TOR starter, and their bullpen is shit.

What am I missing here?

Potential, I'm not joking. Bell isn't a big time power threat but he does have potential to hit some and be productive. Taillon could be a TOR starter but doesn't have the long record of MLB performance. Generally, I agree with your comment but again, the Pirates are employing hope as a method.
People say I am ruthless. I am not ruthless. And if I find the man who is calling me ruthless, I shall destroy him.
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Moral courage is a more rare commodity than bravery in battle or great intelligence.
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Day of commemoration to honor the Victims of Bowling Green, April 1, 2017.
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#28 User is offline   PSU4Lyfe 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 09:17 AM

View Postmzimmerman81, on 29 March 2017 - 08:33 AM, said:

The Pirates have no real power threat and only one legitimate TOR starter, and their bullpen is shit.

What am I missing here?


You don't think Taillon will be a top 2 starter? He could end up being better than Cole.
Disclaimer: This post in no way supports nor defends the signing of Rod Barajas.
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#29 User is offline   ArkansasPirate 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 09:26 AM

78-84.....and that is my highest optimistic guess....I am betting about three guys that start the year will be in other teams uniforms by the end of July
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#30 User is offline   Dale Berra's Nose 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 09:27 AM

View PostGoBucs21, on 29 March 2017 - 08:32 AM, said:

Not if Kang isn't here.

Even if Bell is all that and McCutchen is posting a 150 OPS+ it's a better than average offense but not great. Marte and Polanco are good but not great offensive threat. Look at the Cubs offense and look at the Bucs. One is great, the other is good at best.

But your pick has only one fewer win than mine.

And they are better without Kang. It's really time for everyone to move on from him.
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#31 User is offline   NCBuccofan 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 09:30 AM

View PostMidnight Moose, on 29 March 2017 - 04:17 AM, said:

I'll say 93-69, they host the WC game, and lose it.


Love it!

Ill go 85 wins, and they miss the WC by a game or two. No trades made at deadline other than maybe moving a lefty or two for random prospects.
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#32 User is offline   NCBuccofan 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 09:39 AM

View PostGoBucs21, on 29 March 2017 - 08:53 AM, said:

Potential, I'm not joking. Bell isn't a big time power threat but he does have potential to hit some and be productive. Taillon could be a TOR starter but doesn't have the long record of MLB performance. Generally, I agree with your comment but again, the Pirates are employing hope as a method.


Agree on Bell. His ceiling might be 20 HRs, but I think we all saw he has some power in that bat. He is a very good hitter, so he can still end up with a 140-150 OPS+. Maybe not this year, but the way he has looked, he can be a very productive bat.

They are missing another solid starter, and the bench would look much better with Freese and Frazier on it instead of starting.
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#33 User is offline   mzimmerman81 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 09:53 AM

View PostPSU4Lyfe, on 29 March 2017 - 09:17 AM, said:

You don't think Taillon will be a top 2 starter? He could end up being better than Cole.

I don't know about this year, but I agree he will be good
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#34 User is offline   coolpapacole 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:20 AM

72-90. A new streak has begun.
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#35 User is offline   Winterset Resurrection 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:23 AM

View PostPSU4Lyfe, on 29 March 2017 - 08:27 AM, said:

I do think a lot hinges on Chad Kuhl this year.


No team with a legitimate chance at the postseason would ever have this sentence in their discussion. :)

74-88. #teamDW4L
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#36 User is offline   PSU4Lyfe 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:27 AM

View PostWinterset Resurrection, on 29 March 2017 - 10:23 AM, said:

No team with a legitimate chance at the postseason would ever have this sentence in their discussion. :)/>

74-88. #teamDW4L


Chad Kuhl was pretty good last year as a 23 year old. 3.95 FIP, almost 7 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9. He was really durable in the minors so if he can keep his ERA around or below 4 and eat 200 IP then that's a very valuable starter. He could go either way because he doesn't have stuff that wows you, but if he can get us those 200 IP then we could end up with a pretty good rotation.
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#37 User is offline   GoBucs21 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:37 AM

View PostPSU4Lyfe, on 29 March 2017 - 10:27 AM, said:

Chad Kuhl was pretty good last year as a 23 year old. 3.95 FIP, almost 7 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9. He was really durable in the minors so if he can keep his ERA around or below 4 and eat 200 IP then that's a very valuable starter. He could go either way because he doesn't have stuff that wows you, but if he can get us those 200 IP then we could end up with a pretty good rotation.

He pitched 150 total innings last year. I don't think the Pirates will let him get 200 innings this year. His walk rate was pretty good but his whiff rate was a good bit below average. The league whiff rate is about 8/9innings.
People say I am ruthless. I am not ruthless. And if I find the man who is calling me ruthless, I shall destroy him.
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Moral courage is a more rare commodity than bravery in battle or great intelligence.
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Day of commemoration to honor the Victims of Bowling Green, April 1, 2017.
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#38 User is offline   Winterset Resurrection 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:40 AM

Nothing against Kuhl. I just have trouble getting excited about:

a) #4-5 starter types
b) the possibility that a #4-5 starter will make a significant difference to the squad


Not picking a fight with you, PSU, as I love stories like Kuhl's, love grinders like Kuhl, and think that he's maken the most of his opportunity. Still, the Pirates season should not be hinging on this guy if the Pirates are a legitimately talented team.
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#39 User is offline   PSU4Lyfe 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:42 AM

View PostGoBucs21, on 29 March 2017 - 10:37 AM, said:

He pitched 150 total innings last year. I don't think the Pirates will let him get 200 innings this year. His walk rate was pretty good but his whiff rate was a good bit below average. The league whiff rate is about 8/9innings.


Is that for starters or are you including relievers? He has thrown 150 innings each of the last 3 years, so it's not crazy to think he jumps up to close to 190-200. His contact rates were good as well. A strikeout per inning would seem to be high for MLB average for starters.
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#40 User is offline   PSU4Lyfe 

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:44 AM

View PostWinterset Resurrection, on 29 March 2017 - 10:40 AM, said:

Nothing against Kuhl. I just have trouble getting excited about:

a) #4-5 starter types
b) the possibility that a #4-5 starter will make a significant difference to the squad


Not picking a fight with you, PSU, as I love stories like Kuhl's, love grinders like Kuhl, and think that he's maken the most of his opportunity. Still, the Pirates season should not be hinging on this guy if the Pirates are a legitimately talented team.


You don't think it would be huge for the rotation to get 190-200 IP at about a 3.90 ERA from their 3/4 starter? Do you not like him because he isn't on the baseball America top 100? What's your reasoning?
Disclaimer: This post in no way supports nor defends the signing of Rod Barajas.
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